Saturday, December 3, 2016

My lengthy thoughts on Donald Trump's call with Taiwan

When I was in Shanghai on business back in April this year, I had the opportunity over the weekend to wander around the former French Concession and to visit the house/museum of Song QingLing.  Song QingLing was married to Dr. Sun ZhongShan (aka Sun Yat-sen), who was known in China as the Father of the Nation, and so QingLing herself became affectionately known as the Mother of the Nation.  The home she lived in from 1948 to 1963 is lovingly preserved as a permanent memorial to her and a testament of her devotion to her homeland.
Statue of Song QingLing in front of the museum about her life, on the grounds of her house estate.

As an American growing up in the 1970s and 80s and under Reaganism, I'd learned the usual limited world history taught in American public schools at the time, which mostly centred around the global threat of Communism and just how BAD the USSR and all affiliated Communist bloc countries -- including China -- were.  Even living through the crisis in USA-China relations in the early 1980s and its ultimate "resolution" (which was to become the foundation for our mutually beneficial foreign relations for the past 30+ years) failed to teach me the full back-story between China and the USA and how it all related to Taiwan.  Now as an adult, I always love and appreciate learning "The Rest of the Story" (nod to Paul Harvey) and the differing perspectives that my basic education seemed to miss.

In Song QingLing's house, I learned about Charlie Soong, a wealthy businessman who started out as a Methodist missionary selling Bibles, and his six children -- three daughters and three sons.  His daughter QingLing actually studied in America at Wesleyan College in Georgia, and she celebrated the Chinese Xinhai Revolution of 1911-1912.  Her English was outstanding.
Paper on the Chinese Revolution written by Song QingLing while at Wesleyan

The Soong family was integrally involved in the Republic of China:  it was perhaps the most politically and financially influential family of those decades.  The son TV Soong became the Republic of China's finance minister and premier and the richest man of his generation.  Daughter AiLing married the head of the Bank of China who later became finance minister.  Daughter MeiLing married Chiang Kai-shek, who would go on to become the Kuomintang (the Nationalist Party of China) leader and future president of the republic.  Daughter QingLing ended up eloping to marry Sun Yat-sen, a man 30 years her senior and the original founder of the Kuomintang.  He died in 1925.

I can only imagine what family dinners might have been like after the Chinese Civil War broke out in 1927 between the Communist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT).  The family's safety and money were firmly tied to the Kuomintang.  The civil war was soon overshadowed, though, by the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931 and then World War II.  Civil war picked back up again with a fury in 1946, and this is where America and her infernal international meddling come into the picture.

In fairness to the USA, the USSR was meddling, too, and China became one of the first of many fronts in proxy wars between the USA and the Soviet Union that would last for most of the Cold War.  It would be nice to say the Chinese people should have been allowed to determine their own fate, on their own, but the Soviets were backing the Communists and the Americans were backing the Nationalists, and it was all very messy.  The KMT did not help their case with the Chinese people, having by that time engaged in two decades of corruption, mismanagement, betrayal and killing of opposition while in government.  They were arguably fascists.

Enter again Song QingLing, who apparently loved her country first and foremost, more than the CCP or the KMT or her own KMT-embedded family.  Her open letter to the United States, appealing for an end to interventions by foreign actors, is framed and hung in her museum.  It really struck me, and you should read it for yourself.

"The American people, who are allies and long friends of the Chinese people, must be clearly told of this road [i.e., continuing military support for the KMT] to disaster. ... They must be warned that loans should be given only to a reorganized and truly representative Chinese government. ... The first flame of world conflagration is burning today in our land.  It must be quenched lest the fire destroy the world."


Open Letter from Song QingLing

Lacking popular support and staring at defeat in the civil war, the Kuomintang and the government of the Republic of China looked to the island of Taiwan for retreat.  Mao Zedong declared the People's Republic of China in 1949, and the KMT and ROC fled to Taiwan.

The PRC and the USA were not able to resolve the stalemate, and then the Korean War started, so Taiwan stayed as a break-away province, protected by the USA for the next 30 years, and the USA and the PRC had no diplomatic ties.

With all of that history behind us, the reset in USA-China relations in 1979 which finally switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing could be viewed in two distinctly different ways.

From one perspective, it could be viewed as the final healing of the wound of the Chinese civil war, recognising the legitimate victor of that conflict, acknowledging the will of the majority of the Chinese people, and putting America's past interventions behind us.

From a different perspective, it could be viewed as a terrible betrayal of America's long support for the ROC in Taiwan as well as tacit acceptance of the human rights abuses and killings that happened on the mainland.  Whatever popular mandate and consent the CCP might have had to govern back in 1949 has been cemented over time through violent suppression of any dissent or even free expression, and the Communist Party rules absolutely today like a Mafia enterprise.

Since 1979, there is no doubt that the diplomatic and economic ties between the PRC and the USA have grown and strengthened tremendously, and that has had enormous financial benefits for both countries.  We have had solid, lasting peace, and the lives of many mainland Chinese have improved.  (The Party wisely noted that allowing The People to share in some wealth and creature comforts would keep them sufficiently happy so as not to think about another revolution.)  At the same time, Taiwan has continued to be protected by the USA, living in a sort of diplomatic purgatory, where they are not truly free but they are not being overrun by the Communist Party.  This has been a delicate balance that I am certain must keep a squad of diplomats and CIA operatives occupied full time.  A crucial part of this diplomatic compromise has been the ability of the PRC to "save face" by continuing to pretend that Taiwan still belongs to them, and the USA quietly agreeing to disagree without actually saying anything out loud.

President-elect Donald Trump has come in like a bull in a china shop (ironic analogy) and thrown into utter chaos 40 years of diplomacy layered on top of 70 years of complicated geopolitical history.  I suppose he might have known exactly what he was doing, but it looks heedless and ignorant.  The Chinese are rightly complaining.

If you are of the opinion that the 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique was a terrible mistake and a betrayal of US obligations to Taiwan and the ROC, I supposed this Trump disruption would make you happy.  It certainly throws egg on the PRC's face.  If you wanted to slap them and put them on notice on unfair trade and currency issues, it accomplishes that.  Personally, I would caution that insulting the government of a country where respect, courtesy, formality and pride are foundations of their culture and where America has a less-than-becoming history of imperialist meddling is probably a bad idea.

The "world conflagration" warned in Song QingLing's letter is still a very real possibility today.  The USSR may no longer exist, but the Russians are still around, and anyways, the PRC doesn't need the Soviets anymore.  They are incredibly strong and well-armed on their own.  Why antagonise them?  If they decide to go ahead and invade Taiwan to end the ROC once and for all, what would the USA do?  A trade war is also a possibility: less bloody but still very harmful.  China is currently the USA's largest goods trading partner with nearly $600 billion in total trade during 2015.  China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt with more than $1.24 trillion in bills, notes, and bonds.  America's iPhones come from China.  America's deficit spending is funded by China.  America and China are intricately linked, and those links need to be managed carefully, respectfully and with well-informed deliberation.

Song QingLing broke with her family when she sided with the CCP against the KMT.  She embraced the PRC, survived the Cultural Revolution, met Stalin and continued to live in China until her death in 1981.  Her sister MeiLing was offered an invitation to return to China for QingLing's funeral, which she declined.  MeiLing died in 2003 in New York City.


View from inside Song QingLing's house to her garden.  Photographs of the contents of her house were not permitted.